Service Plays (BCS Championship) Thursday 1/07/10

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Thursday, January 7, 2010

BCS Championship
8:00 pm

Texas #2 13-0
Alabama #1 13-0

 

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NCAAF DUNKEL INDEX

THURSDAY, JANUARY 7

Game 267-268: Texas vs. Alabama
Dunkel Ratings: Texas 113.727; Alabama 111.878
Dunkel Line: Texas by 2; 48
Vegas Line: Alabama by 4; 44 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Texas (+4); Over

 

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NCAAF LONG SHEET

Thursday, January 7

TEXAS (13 - 0) vs. ALABAMA (13 - 0) - 1/7/2010, 8:10 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ALABAMA is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins over the last 2 seasons.
TEXAS is 27-13 ATS (+12.7 Units) as an underdog since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

 

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NCAAF SHORT SHEET

Thursday, January 7th

BCS Title Game
Pasadena, CA
TV: FOX
Texas vs. Alabama, 8:00 ET

Texas:
27-13 ATS as an underdog
4-0 ATS off win by 3pts or less

Alabama:
2-8 ATS off DD SU win as a dog
13-4 Under off BB conference games

 

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NCAAF ADDITIONAL

Trend Report

Thursday, January 7

8:10 PM
TEXAS vs. ALABAMA
Texas is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Texas's last 6 games
Alabama is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

 

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Ksl bowl game of the year (killersportslive?)

Thurs January 7th SIDE & TOTAL PARLAY

ROSE BOWL CHAMPIONSHIP GAME

TEXAS +5 -- 2009 KSL BOWL GAME OF THE YEAR
OVER 44.5

 

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Teddy Covers

Alabama

 

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Newsletters can always be found in it's own thread which Mr. UGK2010 is so kind to create for the Rx. The latest can be found by clicking the link below:

Newsletters Jan 7 - Jan 11

Like 1/6 we will post some in the service thread. Ty and GL cpaw.

 

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THE GOLDSHEET: 14-18-1

Alabama 24 - Texas 13—Although both of these combatants for the
BCS crown played their last game more than a month ago, it’s not easy to
keep disparate recent results from overly influencing the handicap of this
matchup. Sure, Texas enters undefeated, just like Alabama. But, a week
after needing all 60 minutes to dispatch rebuilding rival Texas A&M 49-39,
the Longhorns then barely survived Nebraska in the Big XII title game,
fending off the defensively-stout but offensively-challenged Cornhuskers
(and some nearly catastrophic late-game clock mismanagement) on a lastsecond
FG, 13-12. The Tide, on the other hand, saved their best for last. In
fact, Bama’s 32-13 revenge beatdown of defending national champ Florida
in its conference title game resounds to such a degree that, combined with
the SEC’s haughty reputation, the Tide has a definite air of invincibility
entering this contest.
So, does mighty Texas really have no chance? Hardly. After all,
Alabama has looked plenty “vincible” at times this season, a blocked FG in
the final seconds and a TD in the last couple minutes staving off upset bids
by Tennessee and Auburn, respectively. And the Longhorns will relish their
underdog status, as wily head coach Mack Brown has covered five straight
(including four outright victories) in that rare role. The first game in that dog
quintet? A memorable little contest on this same field four years ago, when
Vince Young led UT to an improbable upset of a seemingly invulnerable
USC squad in the BCS title game. Remember, Young finished second in the
Heisman voting to Trojan RB Reggie Bush that season. This year? Tide RB
Mark Ingram captured the coveted trophy, with Longhorn sr. QB Colt McCoy
in Young’s role as motivated also-ran.
The parallels between that 41-38 shootout and this season’s title game
don’t extend to the fundamentals, however, as the defenses are likely to
dominate this matchup. Alabama has begrudged foes just 11 ppg & 242 ypg
(both No. 2 in the nation), and Texas’ stingy stop unit ranks close behind at
15 ppg & 251 ypg. As for the offenses, each team enjoys at least one easily
discernible advantage. Horn QB McCoy is a fifth-year senior with 52 career
starts under his belt; still-learning counterpart jr. Greg McElroy is in his first
season Tide’s top signal-caller. On the Bama side—while Ingram has
rumbled for 1542 YR on 6.2 ypc and 18 TDs, the often-anemic UT ground
game is led by RS frosh Tre Newton with only 513 YR.
Would it be a shock if McCoy’s passing accuracy (73% the last two
seasons) and resourcefulness (175 YR vs. A&M!) were to lead Texas to
another upset victory? Not really. But the more decisive factor in this game
is likely to be the Tide’s superior rushing attack. Even if Ingram doesn’t post
gaudy statistics, his presence will help slow down the hellacious Horn pass
rush (39 sacks) enough to give McElroy some time to throw down field off
play-action. And, before selling the Bama triggerman short in his personal
battle with McCoy, keep in mind that McElroy is now 29-0 as a starting QB
in high school and college after easily outdueling none other than Tim
Tebow in the SEC title game. Add Lou Groza Award-winning sr. PK Leigh
Tiffin on the Tide side, plus plenty of cleverly designed, NFL-style blitzes by
all-business head coach Nick Saban and highly-regarded defensive
coordinator Kirby Smart (named nation’s top assistant) to keep McCoy off
balance, and the percentages favor laying a fair price with Alabama.
(DNP...SR: Texas 7-0-1)

 

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GOLD SHEET EXTRA: 16-13-1

1-7 ON ACTUAL PLAYS BOWL TECH PLAYS

TEXAS vs. ALABAMA (BCS title game at Pasadena, January 7)...Mack
has been nothing special in bowls lately, just 3-7 vs. number last 10. But he is
5-1 in rare dog role since ‘04. Bama just 2-5 vs. line last 7 bowls in past
decade (1-1 with Nick). Nick is 12-3 vs. line last 15 away from Tuscaloosa,
however. Note much trending in recent BCS title games, with dogs and chalk
3-3 last 6. Tech edge-slight to Texas, based on Mack dog numbers

 

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THE EDGE:

2-4

3*: 1-5
5*: 1-0


5* Alabama

 

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MONEYMAKER

ALABAMA -3’ OVER TEXAS
Texas has a great offense, but the physicality of their defense is a major concern against a talent laden, fundamentally sound and well coached Crimson Tide team. Longhorn’s defense was definitely opportunistic (11 defensive and special
teams TDs this season) but they won’t be able to make the same impact against an Alabama team that doesn’t make a lot of mistakes. The Tide had one turnover or less in ten of their games this season. On paper, Alabama’s #1 total defense
ranking and Texas’ #1 total offense ranking looks like an even matchup, but in our view the Tide’s accomplishment against the SEC is much more impressive than the Longhorns’ production in the pass oriented Big 12. ‘Bama wins this one by 10-14.

 

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SPORTS INSIGHTS


Sports Marketwatch – National Championship Edition

Recapping Bowl Edition IV

Marketwatch struggled to a 1-2 record in this season's second to last edition of NCAA Football Marketwatch. With under one minute to play, Penn State kicked a game-winning 21-yard field goal, beating LSU, and the spread, by two. Our final two games were both tied in the third quarter, before turnovers derailed any chances Northern Illinois and Oklahoma State had of winning, and beating the spread.

Regular Season Record = 24-18-1 (57.1%)
Bowl Record = 4-3 (57.1%)

Warning to all new readers of the NCAA Football Sports Marketwatch column: in order to follow our selections, you'll need ice running through your veins. Be prepared to take up meditation or acupuncture to calm the nerves. The goal of this weekly column is to highlight games that offer true “line value.” Often, if a line looks too go to be true, there is a reason. The underlining theme every week is line value. You'll occasionally need the worst teams on the board to come through. We typically buy on bad news and sell on good.

NCAA Sports MarketWatch – Games to Watch

Texas vs. Alabama (1/7 - 8:35 pm EST)

After being left out of last year's BCS National Championship game in favor of Oklahoma (a team Texas beat by 10 points during the regular season), the Longhorns ran the table this season, won the Big XII Championship, and now have their shot at the title. Alabama also comes into this matchup undefeated, including a 32-13 dismantling of previously #1-ranked Florida in the SEC Championship game.

Alabama opened as a 5.5-point favorite at Pinnacle and, coming off their blowout of Florida, are currently receiving 67% of spread bets. Even though the public is solidly behind the Crimson Tide, the line has shrunk to -3.5 at Pinnacle, suggesting sharp money is coming down on Texas. SportsInsights' Betting Systems agree, triggering eight positive Smart Money Plays on Texas, including one at Cata/VegasVic (+17.26 units), our #1 ranked sportsbook. For the final time this season, we're following the sharps, fading the public and taking the Longhorns and the points.

Texas +4.5 (Bodog)

So, here's a wrap-up of SportsInsights' analysis of this week's Games to Watch.

Games to Watch (28-21-1)
Texas +4.5 (Bodog)

 

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Gamblers Data (Fletcher)

Alabama -3.5 5*

Alabama/Texas un 46 4*

 

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BANG THE BOOK (16-15-2 THUS FAR)


After a very long season it all comes down to this one game for the National Championship. The arguments are over with and it is time to settle it on the field. The #1 team in the country and the SEC Champion will face off against the #2 team in the country and the Big 12 Champion. A breakdown of these teams will help to decide who will be the National Champion!
Alabama is the undisputed #1 team in the country. They played in the hardest conference in the country and avoided all close calls to remain undefeated. They played a tough and talented team in the SEC Championship in the Florida Gators and they crushed them. They arguably have the best defense in the country and have the Heisman winner in Mark Ingram. They just need one more win to bring home the biggest trophy of them all. In order to win they have to beat the Texas Longhorns. The Longhorns won the Big 12 Championship in a close contest against Nebraska. They were up to any challenge the season offered them and they have one of the bet quarterbacks in the country in Colt McCoy. A win in this game will quiet all of the critics. The reason that Alabama crushed Florida is because they controlled the line of scrimmage and therefore they could run the ball. Texas will not allow that to happen and many people don’t realize they are #1 in the country against the run. The Horns have a chip on their shoulder and are not getting any respect with everyone already calling Alabama Champs. The Tide does not travel well and historically when #1 plays #2 the #2 team wins more than naught. Texas has the edge at QB and will win this game and it will be close throughout. The Longhorns are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 neutral site games and 20-8-1 ATS in their last 29 games as an underdog. Take the Horns plus the points in the big game!


BCS Championship Pick: Texas +5

 

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THE SPORTS MEMO (14-18-1)

Recommendation: Texas +5

 

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POINTWISE:

OVERALL: 12-20-1

1*: 1-1
2* :1-3
3*: 2-4
4*; 3-4
5*: 1-5
6*: 4-3-1



PROPHECY: ALABAMA 27 - Texas 17 RATING: 3

 

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MARC LAWRENCE PLAYBOOK: 22-9-2

3* = 1-1
4* = 2-0
5* = 2-0


Texas over Alabama by 1
Hook ‘em Horns!

 

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LOGICAL APPROACH

OVERALL: 42-23-1
SIDES: 18-14-1
TOTALS: 24-9

1 UNIT: 9-5
2 UNIT: 10-8-1
3 UNIT: 19-9
4 unit : 4-2


This is the game many expected back in August. Or at least one of the most likely matchups as Texas was considered a solid choice to make it here to face Alabama, Florida or USC. USC was eliminated early in the season while both Florida and Alabama headed into their SEC Title game showdown unbeaten. Alabama won that game convincingly while Texas needed a fortuitous turn of events and a last second FG to edge Nebraska in the Big 12 Title game to play for the BCS Title. Both teams bring outstanding credentials into this contest. The defenses are ranked # 2 and # 3 in yardage and # 1 and # 8 in points. The offenses also rated highly with Alabama having the better rush attack and Texas better at tossing the pigskin. Alabama lost just 10 turnovers all season and was +16 in turnover margin. Texas created 35 turnovers and was +12 in margin. By virtue of playing in the SEC Alabama played the more demanding schedule. Their significantly better ATS mark also shows they performed better versus expectations than did Texas. Of course just prior to the win over Florida, Alabama struggled to bet by arch rival Auburn, coming from behind in the closing minute. Likewise Texas struggled to hold off their arch rival Texas A&M. Both teams are well coached and each coach already has a National Title - Texas' Brown with their win over USC a few years back and 'Bama's Saban as coach at LSU 2 seasons earlier. Both teams will be well prepared on both sides of the football. Texas arguably has the better ability to come from behind with their more polished passing game. These defenses also rank #1 and #2 against the rush, making it important for Alabama's offense to develop a passing game. Clearly either team can will this game and if these teams faced one another 50 times each should win 25. The value in this game is with Texas, based largely upon what everyone saw in both teams' conference Championship games. For much of the season books that had "future" lines on potential BCS matchups had this matchup pretty much a pick 'em. Both teams are highly motivated. Texas may be fueled as well by their feeling of being slighted last season despite defeating Oklahoma which lost to Florida in the BCS Title game. The Longhorns did not make it to the Big 12 Title game despite sharing the Big 12 South title with Oklahoma and Texas Tech. Teams ranked #2 have historically fared well when facing teams ranked #1 and with not much separating these teams the preference is to take the points with the Underdog. And as such the call will be for the mild upset with Texas winning 23-17, making

TEXAS a 3 Star Selection
UNDER also a 3 Star Selection .